You need to start failing right now
I was inspired by Veritasium video about cognitive bias and the black swan theory.
Basically, you can not prove something true. The best you can hope for is to prove it false and move on.
When thinking about business and how we run companies I never see this kind of mindset.
We never want to prove ourselves wrong. We never want to fail. But trying to prove ourselves right just lead us to accumulate risk.
So as someone defining your product/team’s vision for the future, your goals for the next cycle… try to incorporate a test. Try to prove something wrong.
Example:
Your hypothesis is that sales are increasing because of seasonality, ice creams only sell in summer => try to sell them on winter — It does not need to make sense
You think that the cheaper you sell your goods the more you will sell (it’s proven! Economics!!!) => try to test some products with higher price tags
Data has been showing that people do not want to hear more about tablets, this is a dying industry? => create some quality material about it (remember that Data doesn’t mean anything. Information is what we get from Data. And that is human interpretation)
If you can’t prove yourself wrong you are probably right.
And make peace with that. The best you can achieve is being probably right.
